On the eve of the general elections on Wednesday, October 29, Tanzania is heading towards a vote whose outcome is hardly in doubt. The incumbent president, Samia Suluhu Hassan , and her party, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) , in power since independence in 1961, are widely predicted to win.

Having come to power in March 2021 following the death of her authoritarian predecessor, John Magufuli, whose vice president she was, Samia Suluhu Hassan is seeking her first elected term. Initially, her rise to power sparked a wave of hope. The 65-year-old president distinguished herself from Magufuli by lifting the ban on opposition rallies, reopening media outlets, and repealing a controversial law requiring pregnant girls to return to school.

However, this democratic respite was short-lived. With presidential, legislative, and local elections approaching, the woman her supporters call "Mama" is now accused of leading a regime as ruthless as Magufuli's. Opposition meetings are systematically banned or violently dispersed. According to analysts, her need to consolidate her authority and power in a patriarchal society, having never been elected, could explain this downward spiral. The weeks leading up to the vote were marked by a climate of fear, intense repression, and the near-total absence of a credible opposition.

An opposition that was methodically neutralized

To ensure a landslide victory, the government systematically eliminated any serious competition. The two main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo , are effectively out of the running.

Chadema was excluded for refusing to sign an electoral code of conduct deemed insufficient in its reforms. Its leader, Tundu Lissu , who returned from exile in 2023 after surviving an assassination attempt in 2017, was arrested in April. He is being tried for treason, a crime punishable by death and ineligible for bail. Other opposition figures have suffered the same fate.

1. John Heche , Chadema's vice president, was arrested in October.
2. Luhaga Mpina (ACT-Wazalendo), a popular candidate, was disqualified by the electoral commission.
3. Ali Mohamed Kibao , an executive of Chadema, was found dead in September 2024, his body covered in blows and acid.
4. Humphrey Hesron Polepole , a former ambassador turned critic of the government, disappeared in early October. A video shows his vandalized and bloodstained home.

Faced with the elimination of historical parties, "phantom parties", close to power, have been created to preserve an illusion of pluralism.

Amnesty International denounces a "wave of terror"

In a damning report published on October 20, Amnesty International denounced a "wave of terror" and "systematic violations" of human rights. The NGO expressed concern about the "intensification of repression" targeting the opposition, civil society, journalists, and any dissenting voice. It accused the government of having transformed the judiciary, the police, and the electoral commission into "tools of repression."

Amnesty International documents enforced disappearances (such as that of a young TikToker for a cartoon), arbitrary arrests of activists, and the intimidation of human rights defenders. More than 500 members of Chadema were reportedly arrested last year.

For Roland Ebole, a researcher at Amnesty International, the strategy has evolved: "This time, [...] they are not content with manipulating the ballot boxes, they are eliminating opponents before they can even present themselves." He holds President Hassan directly responsible.

Suspicions of fraud and calls for calm

Tensions are also running high in Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous archipelago, where early voting begins this Tuesday. The local opposition, led by Othman Masoud Othman (ACT-Wazalendo), denounces an "early theft," claiming that the ruling party is using this vote to rig the election, notably by registering "deceased persons" on the electoral lists—accusations dismissed by the electoral commission.

In this deteriorating context, where the presence of international observers has been limited, the Catholic Church has spoken out. On October 14, the Archbishop of Dar es Salaam urged the government to "find solutions" to the kidnappings and disappearances. He also called on Tanzanians not to be "influenced by threats, bribes, or any form of intimidation."

Meanwhile, Samia Suluhu Hassan continued her campaign, promising "peace and stability," a commitment viewed with irony in view of the pre-election situation.