As negotiations resume this Tuesday in Geneva under Oman's auspices, the atmosphere is far from easing tensions. Between hopes for compromise and displays of force, the United States and Iran are engaging in a dialogue under close scrutiny.

Trump blows hot and cold

Donald Trump made his intentions clear on Monday by issuing a direct warning to Iranian leaders. While confirming his "indirect" participation in the discussions through his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, he also warned:

"I don't think they want to bear the consequences of not reaching an agreement."

The message is clear: Washington favours diplomacy, but the threat of retaliation remains on the table should the talks fail.

Between cautious optimism and a defensive posture

In Tehran, there has been a change in tone. Esmaeil Baqaei, spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, believes the American position has become "more realistic." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says he is ready to negotiate on the stockpile of enriched uranium (more than 400 kg) in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, while insisting that Iran will "not submit to threats."

A dialogue under high military tension

On the ground, the tension is palpable. Alongside the diplomatic efforts:

1. On the Iranian side: The Revolutionary Guards conducted large-scale exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (drones, missiles, helicopters).
2. On the American side: An aircraft carrier is patrolling 700 km off the coast, and a second deployment is already being prepared.

The sticking points

The success of this Geneva summit hinges on resolving major disputes:

1. The scope: Tehran wants to limit itself to nuclear weapons; Washington demands to include ballistic missiles and Iran's regional influence.
2. The sanctions: Iran is conditioning any technical retreat on an immediate lifting of American economic pressure.