Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, faces worrying prospects for the 2025/26 season. According to sources close to the Coffee & Cocoa Council (CCC) , the main crop could register a decline for the third consecutive year , while the mid-crop is also heavily impacted.

The CCC has already sold 1.3 million tonnes of export contracts for the main harvest, compared to 1.4 million the previous year, signaling an expected decline in arrivals at Ivorian ports of around 30% between January and March 2026. For the mid-harvest, the drop could reach 25 to 30% , due to a prolonged drought, aging plantations and diseases affecting cocoa trees.

Several factors explain this situation:

-Aging plantations and lack of investment from producers;

-Unfavorable climatic conditions , with irregular rainfall affecting the development of the pods;

-Diseases of cocoa trees , notably swollen shoot, which weaken certain plots.

Faced with these challenges, the CCC announced measures to stabilize supply:

-Strengthening stock controls at exporters;

-Sale of intermediate production on a 100% spot basis to encourage local processing;

-Strict management of flows to limit the risk of smuggling to neighboring countries.

Despite these anticipated declines, the CCC believes that delivery failures can be avoided through more rigorous inventory management and the implementation of these measures. Analysts nevertheless emphasize that these developments highlight the structural fragility of the sector , which remains highly dependent on the condition of the plantations and the climate.

This situation underscores the importance for Côte d'Ivoire of investing in the modernization of plantations , improving agricultural resilience and diversifying the sector to preserve its position in the global cocoa market.